Gaming: College Pigskin Prognostications

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After months of waiting, the 2010 college football season is ready to kick off its first barrage of Saturday games, and with that comes the unveiling of my inaugural Top 12, followed by each club's power ratings.

1-T) Boise State and Ohio State, 100.5; 3-T) Oklahoma and Alabama, 100; 5) Florida, 99.5; 6) Texas, 99; 7) Nebraska, 98.5; 8-T) Wisconsin and Iowa, 98; 10-T) TCU and Oregon, 97.5; 12) LSU, 96.5

For comparison purposes, here were last year's final Top 10 numbers:

1) Alabama, 108; 2) Florida, 106; 3) Texas, 105.5; 4) TCU, 103.5; 5) Oklahoma, 103; 6) Virginia Tech, 102; 7) Boise State, 101.5; 8-T) Nebraska and Ohio State, 100; 10) Oregon, 98

2009 ATS RECORD

Yours truly went 5-3 during last year's bowl campaign for a final 2009 ATS total of 116-94-2, good for 55 percent.

This season I will continue highlighting the top plays on a weekly basis, especially since those games with extensive write-ups went 25-8-1 between Oct. 1 and the end of the season. I will also try to maintain that 75 percent winning percentage in 2010.

For those reading this column for the first time, I break down my picks into four classifications. The Five-Star plays are those games where my key selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks -- games with at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.

Last season's Five-Star totals wound up at 5-4 (56 percent). The Three-Star choices went 45-24-1 (65 percent), while the Two-Star plays finished at 35-31-1 (53 percent). The One-Star picks ended at 31-35 (47 percent).

So far in 2010, the overall record stands at 1-0-1 as Hawaii (Two-Star) covered against USC and Utah (Three-Star) pushed versus Pittsburgh.

THE LONE FIVE-STAR PLAY

Auburn hosts Arkansas State in its opener this Saturday but one wonders how much the Tigers have prepared for the Red Wolves, especially with a huge conference road game just five days later against Mississippi State.

There is no doubt Auburn will be much improved this season after going 3-5 in SEC play last year. However, do not sell Arkansas State short. The Red Wolves have covered at least one game per season over the last seven years versus a BCS opponent, including a three-point SU loss at Iowa in '09, a victory over Texas A&M in '08, and an eight-point SU loss at Texas in '07. Arkansas State's defense will keep this one much closer than the line suggests.

Take the Red Wolves plus the points.

THREE-STAR PLAYS

Oklahoma State hosts Washington State and, surprisingly, the Cowboys are not favored by at least 20 points. The line is extremely low at 17 considering the Cougars still have major question marks on defense.

It is true Oklahoma State will not be one of the top teams in the Big 12 this season but the Cowboys will still put points on the scoreboard. Defensively, they will struggle with just four returning starters. Still, we are talking Washington State -- not Troy, Tulsa and Texas A&M, the next three opponents that come to Stillwater.

Take Oklahoma State minus the points.

Michigan State and Western Michigan hooked up last Nov. 7 and the Spartans rolled to a 49-14 victory. They also outgained the Broncos by close to 400 yards. Not much has changed since as Michigan State returns the bulk of its skill position players and four of its top five tacklers. On the other side, Western Michigan is without its all-time career passing leader in Tim Hiller and its third all-time leading rusher in Brandon West. The defense loses its top two tacklers along with both starting cornerbacks.

Take Michigan State minus the points.

TWO-STAR PICKS

Three underdogs top the Two-Star choices in week one. Go with Purdue (at Notre Dame), Cincinnati (at Fresno State), and Maryland (versus Navy).

ONE-STAR SELECTIONS

Take Toledo (against Arizona) on Friday night and follow that up with Washington plus the points (at BYU), and Boise State on Monday night (against Virginia Tech).

Wwwtechweb NCAA Football Betting News

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Football Betting

NFL Football Betting Online

The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.

Thursday, August 21

NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37

NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road

In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games

Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.

Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.

Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.

That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.

Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.

CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

The 2008 NFL betting lines season is almost upon us! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join sportbook today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLIII and beyond!

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .